What the pattern suggests
The racing press would have you believe that there is a large bias towards low-drawn numbers at Chelmsford City — so much so that wide-drawn runners are sometimes withdrawn with mysterious late injuries. The stats simply don't back this up: over five furlongs there doesn't appear to be much of a draw bias, which can be explained by the fact that Chelmsford is a wide racecourse with deep bends.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Chelmsford City are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|
14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
|||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 111 | 111 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |||||||||
|
|
|
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
The racing press would have you believe that their is a large bias towards low drawn numbers at Chelmsford City, so much so that their are a large number of wide drawn runners which get mysterious late injuries and are withdrawn! The stats just don't back that up, and over 5 furlongs at Chelmsford City there doesn't appear to be much of a draw bias, which can be explained by the fact that Chelmsford is a wide racecourse with deep bends.