What the pattern suggests
The stats don't prove anything here. It is believed that when the ground is soft that being drawn high is a major advantage. With only 3 races to go on its impossible to draw any conclusions, although two of those three were won by horses drawn very high. So its definately something to keep an eye on. Overall it does seem to be slightly advantageous to be drawn high, and therefore near the fair rail at Windsor.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1111 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1111 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
|
3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 9 | |||||||||
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|
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How to use the bias
- Pace: consider where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can obtain a favourable position.
- Going: assess whether one side of the course is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects can become more important when runners are spread across a larger field.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can change the effective bias.
Conclusion
The stats don't prove anything here. It is believed that when the ground is soft that being drawn high is a major advantage. With only 3 races to go on its impossible to draw any conclusions, although two of those three were won by horses drawn very high. So its definately something to keep an eye on. Overall it does seem to be slightly advantageous to be drawn high, and therefore near the fair rail at Windsor.