What the pattern suggests
A strong bias exists at Southwell on the all-weather course. It appears that the centre of the track is the quickest part of the course. One theory is that the roller used is only two-thirds the width of the track, so the middle effectively gets rolled twice — you can actually see that the centre of the track is a darker colour. High numbers sit next to the stands-side rail and are therefore running on a slower part of the track, so it's a big advantage to be drawn low and towards the centre of the course.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Southwell's all-weather course are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 111 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | 11 | x | 1 | 11 | H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1111 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
|
10 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | ||||||||||
How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
A strong bias exists at Southwell on the All Weather. It appears that the centre of track is the quickest part of the course. A theory I have heard for this is that the roller they use to roll the course is 2/3rds the width, and therefore the middle of the course in effect gets rolled twice. If you ever go to Southwell you can actually see that the centre of the track is a darker colour. High numbers are next to the stands side rail and are therefore running on a slower part of the track. Therefore it is a big advantage to be drawn low and in the centre of the course.