What the pattern suggests
It is often believed that a low draw is advantageous over seven furlongs at Newbury, particularly in big fields, since there is a sharp left-hand turn into the straight soon after the start. However, the stats don't really back this up — there doesn't appear to be any real bias.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Newbury are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 11 |
11 | 1 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
|||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 1 |
1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| 12 | 11 |
1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | 1 | 11 1 |
11 |
1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 1 |
||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
|
6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
It is believed that a low draw is advantagous over 7 furlongs at Newbury, particularly in big fields as there is a sharp left hand turn into the straight soon after the start but the stats don't back this up. Their actually doesn't appear to be any real bias.