What the pattern suggests
Hamilton is seen as one of those courses with a large draw bias favouring low-drawn runners, particularly when the ground is soft or softer. However, the stats generally don't back this up. When the ground is good or better, the split of winners is fairly even — if anything slightly favouring high. When it is soft, low numbers do come out slightly better, but the bias certainly isn't massive.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: From 30 March 2011, stall numbering on right-handed courses changed so that stall 1 is always on the inside. Earlier Hamilton results in the chart have been converted to the modern numbering convention.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11111 | 11 | 11 | 1111 1 | 111 | 11 | 111 | |||||||||||||
| 9 | 111 | x1 | 11 | 1 | 111 | 111 |
111 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
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| 10 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||
| 13 | |
11 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
1 | |||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 9 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
Hamilton is seen as one of those courses with a large draw bias favouring low drawn runners, particularly when the ground is soft or softer. However generally the stats don't back this up. When the ground is good or better the split of winners is pretty much even, if anything actually favouring high. When it is soft (those in red) then the low numbers do come out slightly better, but the bias certainly isn't massive.