What the pattern suggests
There is a significant draw bias here. Overall low is favoured, but the picture changes with ground conditions: when it is good or better the advantage is very significant, with twice as many low-drawn winners as high-drawn ones. When the ground is soft, the stands side at Catterick is thought to ride quicker, which would explain why there are more high-drawn winners than low ones in those conditions. In short: good or better, low is best; soft or worse, high is best.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Catterick are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
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| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| 9 | 111 | x 1 | 11 | 11 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
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| 10 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 111 | ||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 11 | 111 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
|
2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |||||||||
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How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
If you look closely you can see a significant draw bias here. Overall low is favoured but if you look at the ground conditions, when it is good or better the advantage is very significant with twice as many horses drawn low as high winning. When the ground is soft it is thought that the stands side at Catterick is quicker and this would explain why their are more high drawn winners than low ones when it is soft. Conclusion - Good or better low best, Soft or worse high best.