What the pattern suggests
The sample points to a clear advantage for horses drawn high. This is surprising given that the 5f course at Bath is run round a left-handed dog-leg, where inside, low-drawn runners might be expected to have the edge. Soft ground does not appear to significantly alter the picture.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: Stalls at Bath are always positioned on the inside of the track.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 111 | 11 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | 1 | x | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1111 | 1111 | H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
|||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | ||||||||||
How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
High has a big advantage on the stats, which is very surprising as 5 furlongs at Bath is run round a left-handed dog-leg, so you would expect the inside low-drawn runners to be favoured but nothing could be further from the truth. Soft ground doesn't appear to affect the draw either.