What the pattern suggests
Although the seven-furlong course turns left and is often assumed to favour low draws, the historical results do not support a strong low-draw advantage. In the source sample, the outside stall actually produced the most winners.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 1 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 1111 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | 11 | x1 | 111 | 1 | 111 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
|||||||||||||||
| 10 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1111 | |||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 111 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 14 | 11 | 11 | 1 | 111 | 111 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 15 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
|
1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | |||||||||
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||
How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and where the field may congregate.
- Going: consider whether one strip of the course is riding faster than another.
- Field size: draw effects can become more important when runners are spread across a larger field.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
The first thing to say is what a lot of rain they appear to have in Ayr! The seven furlongs at Ayr is run round a tight left hand turn, and it is generally thought that low drawn runners have a significant advantage, however the stats don't back this up and in actual fact the most winners have come from the outside stall at Ayr.