What the pattern suggests
It is a widely held belief that high numbers are favoured in big fields on Ascot's straight mile, however the stats simply don't back this up. Overall there is very little bias, particularly in smaller fields when the horses tend to form one group down the middle of the course. However, in bigger fields, where the runners typically split into two or more groups, it actually appears to be low numbers which are favoured.
How to read the chart
Each mark represents a winning stall number plotted against the total number of runners. This reveals whether winners repeatedly cluster towards the low, middle or high side.
The source chart covers horses aged three and older in handicaps from 2024–2025.
Stall-numbering note: From 30 March 2011, stall numbering on right-handed courses changed so that stall 1 is always on the inside. Earlier Ascot results in the chart have been converted to the modern numbering convention.
Historical winning-stall chart
|
WINNING STALL NUMBER |
|||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | ||
| No
of R U N N E R S |
8 | 11 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 11 | x | 11 | 1 |
1 |
H'caps Only 2024 - 2025 |
|||||||||||||||
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | 1 |
1 | 11 | 1 |
111 | 11 | ||||||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 13 | 11 | 1 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 14 | 111 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | 11 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | 1 | |
1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 17 | 1 | |
1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 19 | 1 | 1 |
|||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
|
3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||
|
|
20 |
||||||||||||||||||||
How to use the bias
- Pace: identify where the likely early leaders are drawn and which runners can secure a good position.
- Going: consider whether the inside or outside is riding faster on the day.
- Field size: draw effects are often more meaningful when runners are crowded into larger fields.
- Recent evidence: rail movements, watering and weather can alter the effective bias.
Conclusion
It is a widely held belief that high numbers are favoured in big fields, however the stats simply don't back this up. Overall their is very little bias, particularly in the smaller fields when the horses tend to form one group down the middle of the course. However it does appear that in bigger fields when typically the horses will split into two or more groups that it is actually low numbers which are favoured over Ascots straight mile.